Summer weather forecast wetter in some states and territories, average in others


Whether you are camping, going to the beach, house-boating or four-wheel driving, this summer is going to be wet and cool for some and hot and sunny for others.  

Here’s what you can expect in each state and territory. 

Queensland 

The Sunshine State has been failing to live up to its name of late and this summer is looking like more of the same. 

Eastern Queensland has a fairly high chance of above-average rainfall this summer, in what is normally a wet time of year. 

This includes Brisbane, where there is a 67 per cent chance of getting above the median 355.1 millimetres of rainfall this summer. 

Daytime temperatures are likely to be cooler than average in the south-east but warmer than average along the tropical coast. 

Nights are likely to be warm for most of the state. 

The main risks in Queensland this summer are likely to come from heavy rain, storms and tropical cyclones. 

With the La Niña hanging around, there is a 74 per cent chance of seeing an above-average number of cyclones in the Queensland region this summer.

Tropical cyclones are highly variable, but the average is four cyclones a season.

But inland southern Queensland has above-normal fire potential this summer, with abundant grassland fuel ready to burn. 

New South Wales and the ACT 

New South Wales is forecast to have above-average rainfall, particularly on the eastern coastal strip seaward of the Great Dividing Range. 

But Andrew Watkins, head of long-range forecasts at the Bureau of Meteorology, warned that parts of southern New South Wales and the ACT that have recently seen floods could also see above-average rainfall. 

Daytime temperatures are likely to be below average for most of the state and the ACT, except for areas in western parts of the state where temperatures may be closer to normal. 

Nights are also expected to be warm out west, but average to cooler than average in the north-east. 

There is above-average fire potential for much of inland New South Wales as the abundant recent growth dries out over summer. 

Victoria

It is set to be a soggy summer for Victoria.

In the capital, there is a 76 per cent chance of getting more than Melbourne’s median rainfall of 131.2mm. 

Daytime temperatures are expected to be cooler than average for eastern Victoria, but it could be warmer in the south and south-west. 

Nights are expected to be balmy. 

Victoria is one of the most bushfire-prone regions in the world and the wet and relatively cool conditions mean the chances of big, multi-day campaign fires are down. 

But there is always a risk. 

With the abundant growth triggered by all this rain, there will be plenty to burn if we manage to string a few weeks of hot, dry weather together. 

Please don’t be lulled into a false sense of security, and keep an eye on warnings, especially towards the end of summer.  

Tasmania

Tasmania is shaping up to be a mini version of the mainland this summer — dry in the west and wet in the east. 

Western Tasmania has long been drier than normal as many of the cold fronts that usually bring rain have consistently stayed south of the island. 

As a result there, is above-normal fire potential for the far south-west coast. 

Despite there being a high chance of above-average rainfall in Hobart, days are still expected to be warm. 

There is a 77 per cent chance of this summer beating the 22 degrees Celsius median for maximum temperatures over summer. 

Western and southern Tasmania is expected to have warmer than average days this summer, while the north-east daytime temperatures are expected to be closer to normal. 

But all of the state can expect warm overnight temperatures thanks to warm oceans surrounding the island state, according to Dr Watkins.

South Australia

Slap bang in the middle, South Australia is looking at a goldilocks summer. 

The climate models are not showing a strong swing towards wetter or drier conditions for most of the state.

The south-east might be wetter than average, especially for December, but the forecast is not as convincing as it is further east. 

Daytime temperatures are also looking fairly neutral for most areas, but nights are likely to be warmer than average for South Australia’s more populated regions. 

The weather in SA might be looking average, but the amount of water headed down the Murray River certainly is not. 

The latest prediction suggests there is a high probability the flow at the South Australian border will reach a peak of at least 185 gigalitres a day in early December. 

There is a moderate probability of it getting up to 200GL/day and a lower probability of getting up to 220GL/day. 

The current flow rate is just over 125GL/day. 

Western Australia 

Western Australia is bucking the trend and looking dry this summer. 

Rainfall is looking average to drier than average for most of the state, including for the south-east and Perth. 

It is shaping up to be another warm summer, just like last year. 

There is a 79 per cent chance that daytime temperatures end up averaging more than the 29.7C summer median in Perth. 

“Daytimes can be warmer than normal, especially in the south-west,” Dr Watkins said.

“We’re expecting a bit more air coming off the continent rather than coming off the ocean.” 

Nights are mostly looking warm, especially along the coasts, but parts of the south-east could see below-median night-time temperatures.

Western Australia’s latitudinal stretch means it faces the risk of fires and cyclones over summer. 

Cyclones are highly variable, but the north-western cyclone region is looking at a 70 per cent chance of more than the average five cyclones this season.

The western region overall has a 69 per cent chance of seeing more than the average seven cyclones. 

Parts of Western Australia have above-normal fire potential this summer, including around and south of Perth.

Northern Territory 

It looks like the Northern Territory is headed for a standard summer. 

“There’s a slight chance we’d actually be drier than average up in the Top End, but only slightly,” Dr Watkins said. 

Further south, there is a slight chance rainfall could be above average, but again, it is a far weaker push than for the eastern states. 

Days and nights are expected to be warm over the NT. 

There is a 79 per cent chance maximum temperatures will top the 32.9C median in Darwin this summer. 

Large areas of central Australia have an above-average fire potential this summer thanks to the abundant winter rain and growth. 

The monsoon is expected to move down early this year, so with a bit of luck the wet will be in full swing by Christmas. 

There is a 61 per cent chance of the NT seeing more than the average three tropical cyclones this summer. 



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